Proud Spell romps in the Kentucky Oaks

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/02/2008 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Proud Spell, second in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly race, stalked the pace before running away from the field in Friday's $581,650 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. The 134th edition of the companion race to the Kentucky Derby was contested over a sloppy track.

Proud Spell, ridden by Gabriel Saez, broke well from the middle of the 10 horse field. She settled into second to the outside of pacesetter Bsharpsonata. Tracking the leaders were Little Belle and Country Star.

The fillies maintained their positions up the backstretch and into the far turn. Around the turn for home Proud Spell drew even with Bsharpsonata and took the lead at the top of the stretch.

Proud Spell proceeded to run away from her competition to record a five length victory. Finishing second was Ashland Stakes winner Little Belle with highly regarded Pure Clan getting up for third.

The time for the 1 1/8 miles was 1:50.01 on a sloppy Churchill Downs surface.

Rounding out the order of finish was Golden Doc A, Bsharpsonata, Country Star, A to the Croft, Rasierra, Awesome Chic and Absolutely Cindy. Scratched from the race was Elusive Lady and Eight Belles who will start in Saturday's Run for the Roses.

Owned by former Kentucky Governor Brereton Jones, Proud Spell is a stablemate of Eight Belles, as both fillies are trained by Larry Jones. Jones was the trainer of Hard Spun who was second in last year's Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic.

Proud Spell pockets $348,930 with her fifth win in eight career starts. Overall, she has lifetime earnings of more than $1.28 million.

This year Proud Spell was second to Indian Blessing in the Silverbulletday Stakes before capturing the Fair Grounds Oaks. Indian Blessing took the 2007 Juvenile Filly. Proud Spell came into the Kentucky Oaks off a third place finish to Little Belle and Bsharpsonata in the Ashland Stakes.

Proud Spell returned $8.80, $4.80 and $3.20. Little Belle paid $6.40 and $4.00, and Pure Clan paid $3.80 to show.

The updated weather forecast for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, is cloudy in the morning with isolated thunderstorms developing later in the day, 30- percent chance of rain. Winds from the South Southwest at 15 to 25 m.p.h. Post-time temperature: near 70.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.