Post positions drawn for 24th Breeders' Cup

Horseracing Betting Lines

10/23/2007 - Oceanport, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Post positions and the morning-line odds have been set for the 24th running of the Breeders' Cup World Championships, which will be held this Friday and Saturday at Monmouth Park for the first time.

The featured race is the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles. The event has drawn an excellent field of nine thoroughbreds, including Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and Preakness champ Curlin.

The favorite for the Classic is four-year-old colt Lawyer Ron, who has established himself as the top older horse in North America. The winner of the Whitney and Woodward Handicaps is 5-2 in the program with John Velazquez riding. The pair will start from the inside post with Street Sense and jockey Calvin Borel next to him in post two.

Street Sense and Curlin are both 3-1 in the morning-line, with Curlin breaking from post four with Robby Albarado in the saddle. There are a total of five three-year-olds in the Classic field.

"I think it's one the best fields that's been put together," said Street Sense trainer Carl Nafzger. "You just can't get a better field put together. You got speed, you got closers. They've been beat, but they've been beat by each other. I think it's going to be a great Classic and I'm just glad to be part of it."

Haskell champ Any Given Saturday, 4-1 in the program, will start from post three with Garrett Gomez riding. Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun has drawn post eight with Mario Pino and is 8-1. Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago is 12-1 with Mike Smith in the saddle. Tiago, coming off a victory in the Goodwood Stakes, will start from the far outside post.

"He's gotten bigger and stronger and he's more focused now, more into his races," Tiago's trainer John Shirreffs noted. "It's a terrific field for the Classic and we're glad to be part of it. It's a real treat for me to be here and stabled with Carl (Nafzger). I have the greatest respect for him. The old bull rider and the ex-Marine, we make a fine pair."

Completing the field for the Breeders' Cup Classic is George Washington, Awesome Gem and Diamond Stripes.

With the addition of three new races, that will be conducted on Friday, there are now 11 Breeders' Cup World Championships races.

The first three Breeders' Cup races will be televised on Friday by ESPN2 from 4:00-6:00 p.m. (et). On Saturday ESPN will broadcast from 12:00-7:00 p.m. (et) with the remaining eight races. Trevor Denman will again call the races.

Friday's weather forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies, winds from the east at 10 m.p.h. with a high near 65. A few showers are expected on Saturday with a high near 70 and winds from the south at 5-10 m.p.h.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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