Indians hope to continue to play spoiler in Minnesota

Baseball Betting Lines

07/19/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians may have little hope of finishing in first place in the American League Central, but they've done a fine job of hurting the postseason chances of some of the division's top teams as of late.

Riding a four-game winning streak, the cellar-dwelling Indians head to Minneapolis' Target Field tonight to take on another AL Central champion hopeful, the Minnesota Twins, in the opener of a three-game series.

Cleveland, which came out of the All-Star break 16 games behind front-running Chicago in the division standings, started off its second half in outstanding fashion, taking all four meetings with the contending Detroit Tigers. The Tribe received strong starting pitching in each game of the series, with rookie Jeanmar Gomez continuing the trend in Sunday's 7-2 triumph.

Called up from Triple-A Columbus earlier in the day to make a spot start in place of an ailing Justin Masterson, Gomez yielded two unearned runs and struck out four while walking just one over seven innings in an impressive major league debut. The 22-year-old, who had a suspect 5.70 ERA in 18 starts with the Clippers, allowed five hits and threw 60 of his 93 pitches for strikes.

Jhonny Peralta staked Gomez to an early lead with a three-run inside-the-park homer in the first inning, while Matt LaPorta added an RBI triple later on to help Cleveland record its first four-game sweep of the Tigers since May 31- June 3, 1991. Jayson Nix finished 3-for-5 and contributed an RBI single to the victory.

Peralta gave the Indians a quick 3-0 advantage when his deep drive to center landed over the glove of leaping Detroit outfielder Ryan Raburn, whose momentum carried him through the bullpen door. By the time left fielder Brennan Boesch raced over to grab the loose ball, Peralta was rounding third and on his way to only the eighth inside-the-park home run in Progressive Field history.

"It's the first time that I hit a homer inside the park," Peralta said. "When I saw [Raburn] jump into the wall, I tried to run really fast."

Cleveland, which ranks 12th in the AL in team earned run average, held the Tigers to a total of eight runs over the four games.

Aaron Laffey will attempt to continue the Indians' recent pitching prowess when he takes the mound in tonight's opener. The left-hander has made four starts since being inserted into the rotation in late June and has gone 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA during that stretch.

Laffey's final first-half assignment resulted in a loss, with the swingman surrendering three runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings at Tampa Bay on July 10. He's faced the Twins three times in relief earlier this season, giving up a pair of runs in a span of 3 2/3 frames.

The 25-year-old does own a 4-2 career record against Minnesota, with three of those wins coming in a starting role last season, and sports a 4.71 ERA in his 11 overall encounters (eight starts) with the Twins.

Minnesota has also gotten its post-All Star break slate off to a desired start, taking the final three tests of a critical four-game home set with the AL Central-leading White Sox. That performance has moved the Twins into a second-place tie with Detroit in the standings and within 1 1/2 games of Chicago's lead.

The Twins secured a series win in dramatic fashion on Sunday, scoring four times in the bottom of the ninth inning to deal the White Sox a startling 7-6 defeat. Michael Cuddyer scored the deciding run on a throwing error by Chicago outfielder Alex Rios to cap the improbable comeback.

With the Twins down 6-3 entering their final at-bat, Orlando Hudson and Joe Mauer drew back-to-back walks off Sox closer Bobby Jenks before Jason Kubel singled to bring home a run. Cuddyer followed with a base hit to plate Mauer and bring Minnesota within one, and after Jason Repko reached base via a walk, Delmon Young singled against reliever Sergio Santos to tie the score. Cuddyer had initially stopped at third on the play, but ran home when Rios' throw eluded the cutoff man to complete the rally.

Young also had a two-run homer while Cuddyer ended 3-for-5 with a triple and two RBI for the Twins. Brian Duensing (3-1) did his part as well, tossing four innings of one-run ball in relief of ineffective starter Nick Blackburn.

"I felt a little sluggish, thought I was fighting myself the first couple innings. Duensing said afterward. "The last couple innings I tried not to do as much and just throw strikes."

While the Twins seek to build off yesterday's thrilling win, Scott Baker hopes to continue his season-long success at Target Field when he toes the rubber tonight. The right-hander has compiled a 6-2 record with a 3.28 ERA in nine starts at the first-year ballpark thus far in 2010.

Baker was terrific in his most recent Target Field appearance, limiting Tampa Bay to a run and striking out eight without a walk over seven innings back on July 2. He wasn't as sharp in his subsequent outing, though, permitting five runs and serving up a pair of homers in six innings in a July 8 loss at Toronto.

The Oklahoma State product will be out to avenge a loss to the Tribe at Target Field on April 22, when Baker was reached for six runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings of work. He's 7-6 lifetime against Cleveland with a 3.50 ERA in 17 starts.

Minnesota took two of three tilts from the Indians in that April series in Minneapolis and is 4-2 overall against Cleveland this season.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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