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07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Under Bud Black, the Padres have become one of the biggest successful surprises in 2010. The San Diego manager is now reaping the rewards of that achievement.
The Padres take the field for the first time since Black was given a three- year contract extension as they visit another surprise at the top of the standings, the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves, for the first of three straight games at Turner Field.
The Padres hold the NL's top record at 54-37, just ahead of the Braves' 54-38 mark, and on Monday their manager was given a new deal that also includes club options for 2014 and 2015. San Diego is 281-297 in three-plus seasons since Black was hired in November of 2006.
"This news comes at a time when the team is playing well, but my faith in Bud goes far beyond wins and losses," said general manager Jed Hoyer, who also called the extension for Black well deserved. "He and his staff are exceptionally well prepared, he embraces the challenge of teaching young players and, most importantly, the players compete for him every night."
Black's club has relied heavily on its pitching this year in its run to the top of the NL West, leading the majors with a collective 3.25 earned run average, but has plated 35 runs over a four-game win streak, San Diego's longest since also winning four in a row from May 22-26.
The Padres opened the second half with a three-game sweep of their division's last-place club, the Diamondbacks, taking Sunday's finale by a 6-4 margin. Chris Denorfia matched a career high with four hits, homering twice for the first time in his career to double his season total, as the Padres pounded out 14 hits to move a season-high 17 games over .500.
Tony Gwynn Jr. added a pair of hits, two walks and two stolen bases and Kevin Correia got the win after allowing three runs over six innings, striking out a season-high nine batters for San Diego, which leads the NL West by four games over the Giants.
The Padres figure to face a stiffer challenge tonight in the Braves, who lead the NL East by 5 1/2 games over the Mets but had lost three of four prior to Sunday's 11-6 triumph over the Brewers. Brian McCann hit the sixth grand slam of his career and drove in a season-high five runs as Atlanta split its four- game series.
"Anytime you get the bases loaded you want to get a big hit with less than two outs. I was lucky enough to get an 0-2 pitch that I know the pitcher didn't want to put it there, but I capitalized on it," McCann said. "Everybody hit today, it was a great team effort. Everybody worked the count, took what the pitcher gave us and were able to score some runs."
Matt Diaz also homered and drove in three runs, while Omar Infante had four hits, two RBI and scored twice. Winning pitcher Derek Lowe yielded three runs over 5 1/3 innings of work as Atlanta was without third baseman Chipper Jones for a second game in a row due to a left hamstring strain.
Atlanta might not need Jones again tonight given how Jair Jurrjens has pitched in three games since returning from a two-month stint on the disabled list. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA since coming back and he beat Milwaukee on Thursday after giving up just a run on six hits and two walks over 6 2/3 innings of a 2-1 triumph.
Jurrjens is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts and has been tough to handle this year at Turner Field, where he is 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts.
One of Jurrjens' outings before his injury came in San Diego on April 12 and he was drilled for eight runs over just 3 1/3 innings of a 17-2 setback, falling to 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three career starts versus the Padres.
Jurrjens will try to deal the Padres their first loss since Wade LeBlanc's last outing on July 10, when he gave up four runs on nine hits, including three homers, over 5 2/3 innings of a setback to the Rockies.
The 25-year-old lefty, who faces the Braves for the first time in his career this evening, fell to 4-7 on the season with a 3.30 ERA.
Atlanta manager Bobby Cox won't be calling the shots tonight after getting suspended for a game on Monday. Cox and reliever Jonny Venters were both ejected on Saturday after Venters hit Milwaukee's Prince Fielder with a pitch in the eighth inning after warnings had already been issued to both benches. Venters was suspended for four games by major league baseball and given an undisclosed fine.
The Braves took two of three from the Padres in San Diego from April 12-15 and have won seven of the last nine played at Turner Field in the series.
<< White Sox hope to pad lead in Seattle
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox will be vying to further pad their
lead atop the American League's Central Division when the resurgent club
resumes a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners this evening at Safeco
Field.
Chica
<< Brewers vie to stay hot against Pirates
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One day after starter Chris Capuano earned his first
victory in over three years, the Milwaukee Brewers will try to extend their
series winning streak over the Pittsburgh Pirates to six games this evening in
the sec
<< Marlins try to top another Rockies pitcher in south Florida
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Marlins survived a meeting with Colorado
Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez in last night's opener of a four-game series at Sun
Life Stadium.
The Marlins figure to have an easier chance of matching their longes
<< Red Sox hand ball to Wakefield in Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After getting an important West Coast road trip off to a
good start, the Boston Red Sox shoot for a second straight win over the
Oakland Athletics when the teams continue a three-game series tonight at the
Coliseum.
Bosto
Tigers place Inge on DL >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers on Tuesday placed third
baseman Brandon Inge on the 15-day disabled list with a non-displaced fracture
of the fifth metacarpal on his left hand.
Inge was hit on the hand by a pitch
Russell pleads not guilty to drug charge in Alabama >>
Mobile, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus
Russell made an appearance in a Mobile courtroom Tuesday and pleaded not
guilty to a charge of possession of a controlled substance.
Russell was arrested
Alouettes tangle with Tiger-Cats in home opener >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ranked fifth in the most recent power rankings
in the CFL, the Montreal Alouettes hope to move up as they contend against the
Hamilton Tiger-Cats in their 2010 home opener at Percival Molson Memorial
Stadium this
Bornstein to join Mexican club Tigres UNAL >>
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chivas USA and United States defender Jonathan
Bornstein, a four-time Major League Soccer All-Star, will join Tigres UANL of
the Mexican First Division following the 2010 season.
Bornstein will complete his c
My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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